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Assessing adequacy and long term distributive effects of the Italian pension system. A microsimulation approach (2010-2011)

Responsabile scientifico: Carlo Mazzaferro

PROGRESS Programme


Abstract
The main aim of this research project is to improve the capacity of CAPP_DYN, a dynamic microsimulation model, to estimate the long run distributive properties of the Italian Social Security System. Our main objectives are:
1. an update of the model, including an evaluation of the possibility to use EU Silc as the base population and the re-estimation of part of the econometric models using the latest available data;
2. the development of a new module that will allow the model to project the accumulation and the intergenerational transmission of the private net wealth;
3. the assessment of the distributive implication of the ongoing development of a fully funded complementary private pension’s tier within the Italian Social Security System, that will be modeled according to the 2007 reform;
4. a preliminary evaluation of the distribution of disposable income and poverty risk at a household level in the long run;
5. the implementation of a new user-friendly version of the model which can be used by the staff of the Italian Ministry of Labour and Social Policies. We plan, at the end of the project, to be able to simulate probabilistically, the evolution of the Italian pension system. Accordingly we will be able to produce a series of adequacy and poverty indicators that can help policy makers to take appropriate measure in order to make the system equitable and adequate.

Support
This project is supported under the European Community Programme for Employment and Social Solidarity – PROGRESS (2007-2013).
For more information see: http://ec.europa.eu/progress

Research team
Carlo Mazzaferro (coordinator), Massimo Baldini, Paolo Bosi, Emanuele Ciani, Irene Ferrari, Donatella Fresu, Alessandro Magi, Marcello Morciano, Simone Tedeschi, Francesco Uboldi.

Reports and papers

Assessing adequacy and long term distributive effects of the Italian pension system. A microsimulation approach, 2011 Final report pdf »

E. Ciani, D. Fresu, 2011 From SHIW to IT-SILC: construction and representativeness of the new CAPP_DYN first-year population link » CAPPaper n. 92 S. Flisi, M. Morciano, 2011 Trends and dynamics in the Italian labour market. An empirical evaluation using RFL data, 1993-2007 link » CAPPaper n. 91

E. Ciani, M. Morciano, 2011 Estimation and Simulation of Earnings in IT-SILC link» CAPPaper n. 90

C. Mazzaferro, M. Morciano, E. Pisano, S. Tedeschi, 2010 Modelling Private Wealth Accumulation and Spend-down in the Italian Microsimulation Model CAPP_DYN: A Life-Cycle Approach link» CAPPaper n. 73

Events

Final Workshop ASSESSING ADEQUACY AND LONG TERM DISTRIBUTIVE EFFECTS OF THE ITALIAN PENSION SYSTEM. A MICROSIMULATION APPROACH Modena, 26 September 2011 .: programma :. .: poster :. slides Morciano » pdf slides Flisi » pdf slides Ciani » pdf slides Mazzaferro » pdf

ESPAnet Italia - Quarta conferenza annuale INNOVARE IL WELFARE PERCORSI DI TRASFORMAZIONE IN ITALIA E IN EUROPA The strengths and failures of incentive mechanisms in notional defined contribution pension systems with Angelo Marano, Carlo Mazzaferro and Marcello Morciano Milano, 29 September - 1 October 2011 site

SIEP - Annual Meeting of the Italian Public Economics Association - CRISI ECONOMICA, WELFARE E CRESCITA Measuring Intra-Generational and Inter-Generational Redistribution in the Italian Old Age Pension System with Angelo Marano, Carlo Mazzaferro and Marcello Morciano Pavia, 19-20 September 2011 site programme

ECINEQ - Society for the Study of Economic Inequality Measuring Intra-Generational and Inter-Generational Redistribution in the Italian Old Age Pension System with Carlo Mazzaferro and Marcello Morciano Catania, 18-20 July 2011 site programme

Ministry of Treasury - Workshop T-DYMM INNOVATIVE DATASETS AND MODELS FOR IMPROVING WELFARE POLICIES with Carlo Mazzaferro Rome, 10 May 2011 programme

ZEW Conference RECENT DEVELOPMENTS IN BEHAVIOURAL MICROSIMULATION with Simone Tedeschi Mannheim, 7–8 December 2010 programme

Phd School of Economics - Alumni's Workshop 2010 Modelling Private Wealth Accumulation and Spend-down in the Italian Microsimulation Model CAPP_DYN: A Life-Cycle Approach with Simone Tedeschi Roma, 4 October 2010 programme

Ministry of Treasury - Brown Bag Lunch Meetings CAPP_DYN: A DYNAMIC MICROSIMULATION MODEL FOR THE ITALIAN SOCIAL SECURITY SYSTEM with Carlo Mazzaferro Roma, 29 April 2010 programme